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Fact #1. Fatally Flawed Official Unemployment Number
The U.S. government's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) shocked the world Friday with the release of its official, headline unemployment number: A surge from 8.1 percent to 8.5 percent.
But it's really a lot worse. This number (called "U-3"), although invariably cited by the press in the headlines, is the narrowest, most sugarcoated measure of U.S. joblessness:
* It excludes workers seeking full-time jobs, failing to find them, and then accepting part-time work that almost invariably pays far less.
* It excludes discouraged workers who have given up looking for jobs because they can't find any.
* And, as if that wasn't enough to color the truth, the BLS has been consistently and grossly understating the current unemployment numbers, not revising them until months later when fewer people are paying attention.
Williams points out that:
"The pattern of impossible biases being built into the headline monthly payroll employment continued with March 2009 reporting. Instead of the headline jobs loss of 663,000, consistent application of seasonal-adjustment factors would have shown a more-severe monthly jobs loss of about 750,000. This upside reporting bias has been seen in 11 of the last 12 months, with a rolling 12-month total upside headline-number bias of 1,345,000."
The proof: In every single one of its six most recent monthly payroll reports, the BLS has announced massive upward revisions in prior months' job loss numbers — with five of those even exceeding its own guidelines for the acceptable margin of error (plus or minus 5 percent).
Fact #2. Government Admits Some of the Flaws
The government also publishes a broader measure of unemployment ("U-6"), which corrects some — but not all — of the above flaws.
This measure includes many discouraged and part-time workers, as it should. And, lo and behold, those adjustments alone add more than seven full percentage points to the unemployment rate!
Instead of 8.5 percent unemployment, suddenly we see that we have 15.6 percent unemployment, according the government's own admission.
Instead of a recession, suddenly we see that we are already in a depression........View This Issue On Our Website [»]
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